Jagjit Chadha's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
There will be considerable heterogeneity across EA countries because of their respective reliance on socially intensive activities, the scope for available fiscal responses and the effectiveness of the health and social care infrastructure. So this range is a broad guide to what we might expect overall without necessarily being specific about any one country.

Should the ECB Reformulate its Inflation Objective?

Question 3: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly recognize unemployment and/or economic growth as a secondary aim, secondary to its price stability mandate.”

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
What it can do better is to place some weight on excessive output volatility and so smooth any return to the inflation target. This implies not so much a secondary aim or target but recognition of the need to avoid sharp employment fluctuations in the Euro Area in aggregate. There may of course be quite sharp output or employment variations in any one country which will not be the responsibility of the ECB.

Question 1: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly state that it will allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target following extended periods of low inflation.”

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
A symmetrical target is a much better next step. And then a move to one pursued flexibly in the manner suggested.

Question 2: Would you support increasing the ECB’s inflation target to a higher rate of inflation than the current 2% target?

Answer:
Oppose
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It will threaten price stability or notions of what constitutes price stability to have an inflation target much above 2%. There might be a case of a small increase to 2.5%, as was the original centre of the target in the UK and that may allows some more national diversity in response to shocks. But most people tend to argue for a much large increase which will unhinge inflationary pressures without any great gain.

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident at all

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