Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
The fundamental reason for central bank independence, namely that politicians have a hard time not to fall for the temptation to stimulate the economy too much, has not changed. However, in many countries, too much inflation is unlikely to be a concern within the coming 48 months. In Europe, the problem is the opposite. In the U.S., the situation is different and inflation expectations may start to rise if president Trump attempts and succeeds in pushing monetary policy in a too expansionary direction.
I general, central bank policy must return to only setting short policy rates in order not to risk its independence. This is likely to happen in many OECD countries including the U.S. as the economy recovers. The recovery and thus the return to standard monetary policy is slower in the euro-zone. However, the lack of a central decisive government in the euro-zone implies a smaller medium-run risk of less ECB independence.
Question 2:Do you agree that the German government should increase public spending given its persistently large current account surplus and given that it is part of the Eurozone?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Future of Central Bank Independence
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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
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Question 1: Do you agree that central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months?
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German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that the ECB's monetary policy masks structural problems of member states?
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Question 1: Do you agree that exceptionally loose monetary policy by the European Central Bank is no longer appropriate?
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German current account surpluses
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Question 2: Do you agree that the German government should increase public spending given its persistently large current account surplus and given that it is part of the Eurozone?
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