John VanReenen's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics
Director of Centre for Economic Performance

Voting history

Covid-19: Economic Policy Response

Question 2: Which of the following would have the second greatest impact in mitigating the economic effects of the coronavirus economic crisis in the UK?

Answer:
Making unemployment benefits more generous, streamlined, or comprehensive
Confidence level:
Confident

The UK Productivity Puzzle

Question 2: Which of the following was the second most important cause for the slowdown in UK productivity growth?

Answer:
Labour market factors
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
UK has had very poor wage growth as result of low productivity growth. If wage growth was stronger (as in other countries), measured labor productivity growth would be higher (but this would not be desirable).

Question 1: Which of the following was the most important cause for the slowdown in UK productivity growth?

Answer:
Low demand (including due to the financial crisis, austerity policies, or Brexit)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Confident that this is one factor, but there are many: global slowdown http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1496.pdf; financial frictions http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1672.pdf. Long-term failure to invest in human capital & infrastructure

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident

House Prices and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The main point is that Brexit will cause a fall in real incomes relative to remaining in the EU. This will cause both a fall in consumption and house prices (relative to trend). The problem is not house prices per se, but the underlying structural causes. Brexit will lead to lower trade, FDI and immigration dampening growth. London and South East have high house prices because of a lack of supply (due mainly to poor planning regulations).

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