Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
See the evidence form my innovation policy toolkit (aka the 'Lightbulb Table') https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1832.pdf
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The costs of Brexit will be (and are) greater than many think because of the loss of dynamism due to lower trade. We predicted all this pre-recession https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/NEWS/abstract.asp?index=5850. (The Minford view that de-regulation and low taxes would tranform UK is sheer fantasy.)
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?
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