In the short term, yes, although the direction of causality is primarily the other way - slowing GDP growth leading to lower house prices. In the longer term, lhowever, lower house prices, especially if driven by increased supply, would be good for labour mobility, wealth inequality and so on, and would hence be positive for productivity and GDP growth.
Yes; house prices are likely to be subdued nationally. But a lot depends on wider economic developments, which in turn depends on Brexit. The central scenario remains sluggish growth, both in the economy and for house prices. But the prospect of a "chaotic Brexit" could make matters considerably worse.
It is likely to be a contributing factor but not necessarily main cause. Nor does it follow that tighter policy b- rather than stronger/better targeted regulation, higher capital bequirements etc - should be the policy response
It is very difficult to reconcile current levels of equity valuations and very low long term interest rates. Market measures of volatility/risk also seem implausibly low. It is of course almost impossible to call "bubbles" ex ante but some at least of the obvious warning signs are there. And it is even harder to predict precisely how a sharp reversal would manifest itself and how large any negative consequences would be - but again history suggests we should be worried
The evidence seems clear that falls in unemployment in the UK have not had the same impact on real wage growth as before the crisis (see work by Machin and Blanchflower). This is true even over the last few years of low inflation (after the 2011 spike). This seems likely to be the result of two factors: first, structural changes in the UK labour market (in particular the growth of forms of insecure and precarious work). Note that this is not really about regulation or law: the UK labour market is somewhat more regulated than in say 2000, but rather changes in technology and work practices. Second, the astonishingly poor productivity performance of the UK since the crisis, which is likely both to reflect demand and supply side issues.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
House Prices and the UK economy
Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
Global risks from rising debt and asset prices
Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?
Question 1: Does the world economy face heightened risks arising from an excess of public and private debt and/or inflated asset prices?
Wages and economic recoveries
Question 2: Do you agree that the different behaviour of UK real wages relative to Eurozone wages during the Great Recession is in large part due to the UK having different labour market policies?