The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy. Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?
Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Unemployment remains high relative to the sustained period of high employment b rates in the 2000s and there is little/no sign of unsustainable wage growth
To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Yes but
A) there is no threshold value (60,90, whatever) over which debt is dangerous
B) In immediate aftermath of crises (like now) priority should be for fiscal policy to support recovery
Second question:
To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.
Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Whether it is sensible to target the absolute or structural deficit may well depend on the political circumstances - a country with a record of responsible fiscal policy may be in a better position to adopt a more gradual approach.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014
Question 1
The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy. Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?
Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)
First question:
To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.
Second question:
To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.
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