Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK?
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Ruling out a monetary union would probably have some costs in terms of trade and reduced economic integration with Scotland. However, the downside risks of a poorly structured or managed monetary union are sufficiently great to justify incurring these relatively small (for the continuing UK) upfront costs.
Question 1
Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
An independent Scotland, if economic policy were broadly sensible, would probably be slightly worse off than as part of the UK; if both lucky and well managed, it might be slightly better off. However, the downside risks (both exogeneous and arising from the quality of policy making) are quite large.
Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The direct impact of continued economic stagnation in the eurozone will clearly be negative, but no more so than over the past 3 years, and despite that recovery is now established. If deflation led in turn to serious economic and political instability in the eurozone, that might be different, but that seems unlikely (albeit not impossible) in the short term.
Question 1
Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Although in some models deflation is a threshold: that is -0.1% inflation has a very different impact on other macro variables than 0.1% - I think that in practice this is highly implausible. In my view inflation from 0 to 0.5% is not that different from deflation in its impact and consequences, and we are already there. So while I do not think the probability of negative inflation is much above 25%, nor am I confident in my CPI forecast, I think for practical purposes we are already there, or almost.
Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Predicting future technological progress is impossible. But I don't see why it should have slowed. If financial sector dysfunction reduces growth that represents a policy failure more than a reduction in underlying potential.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014
Question 2
Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK?
Question 1
Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?
Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014
Question 2
Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?
Question 1
Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?
Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014
Question 2
Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
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