Jorge Braga de Macedo's picture
Affiliation: 
Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon
Credentials: 
Emeritus Professor of Economics

Voting history

Fiscal Rules in the European Monetary Union

Question 2: Which of the following is the one reform you would choose to improve fiscal rules?

Answer:
Fiscal councils or fiscal standards
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
It is not clear from the question what the "impact" variables (output, inflation, unemployment, inequality) would be at what horizon (quarter, fear, decade) and the complementarity between the alternatives to the existing fiscal rules should not be discarded. Nevertheless, my experience with the Maastricht treaty (which I signed on behalf of Portugal) and the effectiveness of the Fiscal Council created in 2012, at the time of the adjustment program agreed with the “troika”, suggest that enhancing the complementarity between fiscal councils and norms would avoid getting bogged down in the burocratic silos which have plagued EU fiscal rules.

Proposition 1: The existing fiscal rules for European Monetary Union members require revision.

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
Ever since fiscal rules were discussed in preparation to the 1991 intergovernmental conference their practical effectiveness has been disputed due to the very different budgetary procedures of member states and indeed the ones agreed at Maastricht were quickly revised in the Treaty of Amsterdam. It is therefore tempting to remain indifferent rather than strongly agreeing or disagreeing. Nevertheless, I agree with a revision because the link between fiscal and financial stability uncovered by the euro crisis of 2010-14 has become stronger in the subsequent environments, not least the pandemic.

The ECB’s Green Agenda

Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050 is part of an international effort where central banks are not at the forefront. in addition a change in the mandate of the ECB is much more difficult than that of a national central bank

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between ½ and 2 percentage points
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
the growth rate of potential output is harder to predict that the level and the estimates of the output gap peter out pretty quickly after 2021 but the existing disruption across the world economy, incluiding Brexit, seem to rule out a quick recovery

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
what is due to covid-19 is difficult to ascertain given the current uncertainty about public health responses across the eurozone let alone the outsider world

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