Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Increase
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The AI revolution may not cause job polarisation in high income countries as it will affect low-skilled, middle-skilled and high-skilled jobs. However unemployment is likely to increase in developing countries because geopolitical uncertainty involves countries like China, India, Brazil, Nigeria etc and that will have knock-on effects on high income countries.
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Increase (to 4-6%)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
At the 2017 NBER conference on The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb it was not yet clear that machine learning would become a general purpose technology but this seems to have happened and not just in developed countries. Assuming the 4% inflation going forward, a global growth above that rate presumes a lessening of geopolitical tensions which at the moment is not apparent. I still bet on the upside rather then no change or fall.
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
Answer:
The MRO rate will peak above 3.5%.
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
As German 2y bonds hit 3% and the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index outstrips forecasts, the expected sharp rise in salaries will maintain pressure on prices.
Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?
Answer:
Unlikely
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The expression attributed to the Portuguese governor of «“at least” a few more rate hikes» should not ignore that major central banks are once again adding liquidity to global financial markets and a US debt ceiling crisis may confront the Fed.
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Answer:
ECB policy rates will be appropriate in 2023.
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Rising non-US central bank flows and investor optimism about growth would keep ECB policy rates appropriate if geopolitical tensions abate but I am not confident that they will.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
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