Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
the lack of confidence stems from the additional difficulty on defining well-targeted fiscal policies in a timely fashion among so many different countries and energy mixes
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
the lack of confidence stems from the difficulty on defining well-targeted fiscal policies fast enough
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
the lack of confidence stems from the unprecented nature of such an embargo and the assumption that all EU countries agree on the ban which seems unlikely especially in the absence of agreement on well-targeted fiscal policies
Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.
Answer:
Average inflation targeting
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
While other policies targeting the "price level" or "nominal GDP" let alone a "hybrid" may be more appealing in theory this one is the least complicated to adjust to
Question 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “The European Central Bank should systematically allow for inflation to exceed its target to compensate for periods of below target inflation.”
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
As this remains a more controversial issue in the euro area than elsewhere I hesitated on whether I agree or strongly agree
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Effects of an embargo on Russian gas
Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation
Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.
Question 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “The European Central Bank should systematically allow for inflation to exceed its target to compensate for periods of below target inflation.”
Pages