Jorge Braga de Macedo's picture
Affiliation: 
Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon
Credentials: 
Emeritus Professor of Economics

Voting history

The ECB’s Green Agenda

Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050 is part of an international effort where central banks are not at the forefront. in addition a change in the mandate of the ECB is much more difficult than that of a national central bank

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between ½ and 2 percentage points
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
the growth rate of potential output is harder to predict that the level and the estimates of the output gap peter out pretty quickly after 2021 but the existing disruption across the world economy, incluiding Brexit, seem to rule out a quick recovery

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
what is due to covid-19 is difficult to ascertain given the current uncertainty about public health responses across the eurozone let alone the outsider world

The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options

Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?

Answer:
Expanded EU budget (with possible borrowing at the EU level)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
this option allows for complementarity between the sources of funds while debt restructuring and joint borrowing by member states require variable geometry solutions within the eurozone which could hurt financial stability in the union, exacerbate the depression in economic activity and the rise of unemployment and thereby failing to address health and climate threats together.

Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?

 

 

Answer:
5-10% of GDP
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
in spite of the fascination with twelve zeros in the press, it seems impossible to more than double current commitments for this year not only because of differences between debt levels across member states but also because of higher geopolitical tensions which the pandemic has exacerbated so far. the size of funding should therefore be closer to the lower bound.

Pages