Lack of consensus in the predicted effects was the issue. Had there been similar predictions of the effects, then maybe this question would have been relevant.
Question 5: Voters think that the preferences of economists do not align with their own preferences. (This includes the possibility that they thought that the predicted negative economic consequences would not affect them personally).
Do you agree this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
Question 4: Voters did not believe the economic arguments put forward (for example, because they thought the arguments put forward by macroeconomists with dissenting views made more sense or because voters have little faith in economists in general).
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
The Treasury forecast of the costs of Brexit was performed at a very low standard, and could have been convincingly revised down to the more plausible figure suggested by the IFS. The big difference in forecasts could not have instilled confidence in the population at large.
Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
Many of the poorest parts of the country voted for Brexit because they were concerned about the negative impact on wages of immigration. In fact this is borne out by the research of Dustmann et al (2013). MPs opposing Brexit should have acknowledged this, and made a pledge to address this as a matter of urgency.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?
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Question 6: Economists did not explain the reasons for this consensus in sufficiently clear language.
Do you agree this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 5: Voters think that the preferences of economists do not align with their own preferences. (This includes the possibility that they thought that the predicted negative economic consequences would not affect them personally).
Do you agree this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 4: Voters did not believe the economic arguments put forward (for example, because they thought the arguments put forward by macroeconomists with dissenting views made more sense or because voters have little faith in economists in general).
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 3: Voters chose to leave the EU for non-economic reasons.
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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