Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?
Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?
Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?
Share prices are showing an extreme reaction to recent events, and I would be very surprised if they did not to some extent recover. However the drop in oil prices presages high volatility in the cost of energy over the short to medium term, and such an environment of uncertainty will inevitably lead to lower investment. The weakness of emerging market economies will affect UK export demand, so overall I expect to see increasing problems for the UK's recovery.
The enormous level of non-performing loans in China seems now ready to precipitate a reduction in the growth of capital investment there. While I cannot imagine that growth will continue to be anything other than positive there, it is likely soon to drop well below 7%. This will inevitably impact on demand throughout the world, and will lead to lower growth almost everywhere.
Question 2: Do you agree that the Bank's proposal to release the policy decision, MPC minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time justifies a change in the structure of MPC meetings from two consecutive days to a process in which in the MPC meetings are spread out over seven days?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Brexit and financial market volatility
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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?
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Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?
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Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects
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Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?
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Question 1: Do you agree that economic growth prospects for the global economy have seriously deteriorated?
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Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England
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