Proposition 2: Asset prices and financial imbalances are best addressed using macroprudential tools and left out of the monetary policy decision making process.
Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Propostiion 2 is the post-GFC consensus.
The jury is still out on how successful the post-GFC framework has been. The understanding of macro prudential policy is still very low amoung the general public.
Proposition 1: The Bank of England’s mandate should be officially modified to take housing or other asset prices into account in its monetary policy decisions.
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The relationship between house prices and monetary policy - "It's complicated".
That is why I agree that house prices should receive special attention in monetary policy decisions.
1. Housing prices and housing costs affect a larger share of the population than other asset prices do.
2. There is still no good measure of inflation that includes housing costs, which is a large and important share of consumer spending.
3. While housing cycles tend to be longer than a business cycle - the two are inextricably linked. We know housing booms tend to proceed larger recessions. And that low for long fuels can fuel housing booms.
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I’m in favour of clear and simple mandates. They allow policy institutions to be effective.
I don’t think it’s a good idea to change the mandate. It would muddy the water.
And the EC
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Answer:
Actively biasing its portfolio towards green investments
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The EU/ECB has made clear that it wants to encourage the transition to a low carbon economy. It therefore makes sense to use a range of policies to make that happen, including through the ECB’s bond purchase policies.
We know that the re-pricing of financial assets is a key part of the transition to low carbon (i.e. pushing up the price of green assets and pushing down the price of brown assets). Such a bias would at the very least provide a ‘signal’ to financial makers, that the ECB is behind the climate agenda.
In choosing this option, of actively biasing, the portfolio, the ECB can decide by how much to bias the portfolio. It could be a small bias, or a large one.
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Answer:
None of the above, other, or no opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
2020s is going to be a decade of big changes for the UK economy. Post-Brexit trading arrangements and implications of the pledge to be net zero by 2050 are two big unknowns.
These create great uncertainty, particularly about the "supply of the economy".
For example, will the UK maintain its current industrial structure post-Brexit or will it need to change. How much will labour supply growth fall given the end of EU freedom of movement?
To meet the government’s climate pledge to be net zero by 2050, requires investment in new markets and new technologies. It also requires consumers to change their behaviour.
My sense is that the biggest threat is inflationary pressures coming from a deterioration in the supply potential of the economy.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Proposition 2: Asset prices and financial imbalances are best addressed using macroprudential tools and left out of the monetary policy decision making process.
Proposition 1: The Bank of England’s mandate should be officially modified to take housing or other asset prices into account in its monetary policy decisions.
The ECB’s Green Agenda
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
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