Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Answer:
Banning bond purchases from industries with no clear plan to get to zero emissions by 2050
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Answer:
Past monetary policy decisions and other monetary factors
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
Selected monetary factors but think it will be a mix of pressures.
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Answer:
The BoE will be unable to avoid inflation exceeding its target
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The UK in particular may struggle with inflation early in the decade - Brexit and Covid costs into a labour market with a lot of mismatch as different sectors and places flourish and fade. Possibly also downward pressure on sterling with concerns over breakup of the Union. Inflation expectations may shift upward.
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
Answer:
A moderate portion of the decline (around a half)
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The ECB’s Green Agenda
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
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