Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Answer:
Less than 1pp
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Question 3: Relative to tax plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
Answer:
Cutting tax rates, but allowing revenues to increase via inflation
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 1: Relative to the Bank of England’s planned trajectory for interest rates at the beginning of the year, the Bank should respond to geopolitical events by:
Answer:
No change
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 2: Relative to the public spending plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
Answer:
Increasing public spending, but less than inflation
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Effects of an embargo on Russian gas
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the UK Economy
Question 3: Relative to tax plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
Question 1: Relative to the Bank of England’s planned trajectory for interest rates at the beginning of the year, the Bank should respond to geopolitical events by:
Question 2: Relative to the public spending plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
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