Lucio Sarno's picture
Affiliation: 
Cambridge University
Credentials: 
Professor of Finance

Voting history

Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?

 Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Inflation will be at the current target rate
Confidence level:
Confident

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
½ percentage point or less
Confidence level:
Very confident

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
More than 5%
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
Small tradeoff
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Large damage
Confidence level:
Confident

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