Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The value of a currency is an outcome not a target itself.
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
We observe that the real effective exchange rate has not been different to historical values. Also, the nominla exchange rate has recovered a lot of its value vis a vis the dollar since september. So it is not the real factors or indeed the war in Ukraine to drive the changes.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Euro weakness in 2022
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
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