Maria Demertzis's picture
Affiliation: 
Bruegel

Voting history

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy rates will be appropriate in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The value of a currency is an outcome not a target itself.

Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?

Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
We observe that the real effective exchange rate has not been different to historical values. Also, the nominla exchange rate has recovered a lot of its value vis a vis the dollar since september. So it is not the real factors or indeed the war in Ukraine to drive the changes.

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 5pp and 10pp
Confidence level:
Confident

ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation

Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.

Answer:
Average inflation targeting
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The trouble with average inflation targeting is that it also needs either a specified term (like average of, say, 4 years) or it needs explicit tolerance bands around. By itself, Average IT is not easily operational.

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