Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
The downside to inaction is "letting the cat out of the bag", i.e. setting in motion a chain of events that will be difficult to control. In the current climate I don't see what this could be. If inflation were to rise then the central bank has plenty of ammunition in terms of interest rate hikes or QE reversals, so it seems premature to act now.
I'm concerned that our ability to accurately measure inflation is deteriorating over time. The statistical authorities find it difficult to measure inflation when the nominal recorded cost of many services is zero (Skype, Facebook etc), so the strong labour market may be a good indicator that the economy may be overheating even if inflation is muted. Strong labour market performance is an indicator of *something* and that something may call for policy actions.
Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
There’s some evidence in the Nationwide house price data that GDP growth leads house price growth in the UK (rather than vice versa) so in aggregate there’s no particular reason to believe that house price falls cause UK growth to falter.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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Bitcoin and the City
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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?
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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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