Michael McMahon's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Oxford
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too low in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?

Answer:
The MRO rate will peak above 3.5%.
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?

Answer:
Likely
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
But the peak being behind us and the inflation challenge for central banks being behind us are not necessarily the same thing. If inflation comes down and settles in the 4-5% range, it still poses a big challenge for policymakers to determine how quickly to bring it back to target.

Assisting Households Facing Rising Energy Costs

Question 3: Should a windfall tax be used to (fully or partially) finance support to households?

Answer:
No opinion or other
Confidence level:
Not confident at all

Question 2: Which of the following is the best way to address the impact of rising energy costs on household finances?

Answer:
Conditional/targeted transfers
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In terms of the crisis, policy is not able to offset the high energy costs and so the question is how to distribute the costs. Targeted transfers can do this. And given the need to reduce energy usage to try to achieve climate goals, allowing prices to rise especially for heavier users can help too. Failing this, a lump sum transfer at least has the property of being relatively more valuable for poorer households. that it can

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