Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too low in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
Answer:
The MRO rate will peak above 3.5%.
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?
Answer:
Likely
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
But the peak being behind us and the inflation challenge for central banks being behind us are not necessarily the same thing. If inflation comes down and settles in the 4-5% range, it still poses a big challenge for policymakers to determine how quickly to bring it back to target.
Question 3: Should a windfall tax be used to (fully or partially) finance support to households?
Answer:
No opinion or other
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Question 2: Which of the following is the best way to address the impact of rising energy costs on household finances?
Answer:
Conditional/targeted transfers
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In terms of the crisis, policy is not able to offset the high energy costs and so the question is how to distribute the costs. Targeted transfers can do this. And given the need to reduce energy usage to try to achieve climate goals, allowing prices to rise especially for heavier users can help too.
Failing this, a lump sum transfer at least has the property of being relatively more valuable for poorer households.
that it can
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?
Assisting Households Facing Rising Energy Costs
Question 3: Should a windfall tax be used to (fully or partially) finance support to households?
Question 2: Which of the following is the best way to address the impact of rising energy costs on household finances?
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