Michael Wickens's picture
Affiliation: 
Cardiff Business School & University of York
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
2% or less
Confidence level:
Confident

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
Large tradeoff
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The government has completely failed to give any analysis of the trade-off between lives and livelihoods. This alone suggests that the cost in livelihoods is likely to be large and therefore unmentionable. Most of the academic research indicates that the benefit in lives is less than the cost in GDP. Many of the current lockdown measures - especially those involved in outdoors activities - make little sense even in terms of lives saved.

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Large damage
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A substantial portion or the entire decline
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The deserted high streets speak for themselves

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