Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The number of jobs and the level unemployment will not change but the number of hours of work will fall and leisure increase. This is what has happened following past tech improvements. The same thing will happen with AI.
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
My guess is that it will increase the rate of growth, but by less than 4%
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
N/A or Other
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The key to boosting GDP in the medium term is higher private investment. This could be helped by tax policy and stable future expectations of policy and world growth. We may have to live with lower labour participation and so require labour-saving investment and a more skilled labour force with better education.
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
Labor force participation
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Vacancy rates are very high as a result of falling participation rates. All are clearly relevant but oil prices, Brexit and tax policy will probably have shorter-term effects
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
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