Michael Wickens's picture
Affiliation: 
Cardiff Business School & University of York
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
Not at all
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
None

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
By a large amount but temporarily
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The inequality is of two sorts. This generation of pupils will be disadvantaged compared with previous generations. Due to the on-line learning provided, private school pupils will be less disadvantaged than those of state schools whose teachers seem to have shown far less concern for their pupils and many of whose pupils will not have on-line learning facilities.

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Minor
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Too long a time period to have much affect

Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?

Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?

Answer:
Consumer demand
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The key to recovery is the restoration of demand. All of the other factors would automatically improve as a result. Without this they would not be effective. The rise in private debt is one of the dangers to the recovery of demand.

Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions? 

Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I expect a faster return to growth than usual from a recession but not a quick return. The main dangers to growth on the demand side are that it is not clear how quickly employment income will be restored and how quickly the raised savings rates of employed households and the higher debts of other households will decline. On the supply side, it is clear that many firms have gone out of business and most of the survivors will take time to respond to the return of demand.

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