Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
N/A or Other
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Supply side reforms are tempting but hard to implement given the state of public finances. There is a need to invest in skills and infrastructure but short to medium run returns on such investments are probably low to modest (and it would be wrong to not focus on longer term returns when selecting such projects). Worker retraining, again, might be needed, but should not expected to bring about a large short to medium run boost to the economy. Boosting labor market participation may be more promising, but unemployment is already low, real wages have stagnated in the UK for decades now, and there is probably important selection effects in labor market dropouts. Repairing public finances will not bring about a boost in the short term. There is some low hanging fruit though: Reentering the EU single market. This would boost public finances and the economy.
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think there were initial doubts about the ECBs willingness to increase the policy rate in the face of "fragmentation risk" and continuing credit policies. Once the ECB starting signalling that it would increase rates, the Euro recovered. On the real economy side, we now see Europe - Germany in particular - coping much better without russian energy imports than feared by some. In combination, this hopefully signals that the economy will be less prone to a significant downturn than previously thought and that the inflationary pressures will be contained.
Question 2: Which policies could best help reduce regional productivity disparities?
Answer:
Investment in skill development and education
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
See answers to previous question. It is a mix of factors but I believe education is a key factor.
Question 1: What is the primary factor driving regional productivity disparities in the UK?
Answer:
Other or no opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I believe it is a mix of factors rather than a single one. Education and infrastructure differences are important elements and these interact with agglomeration effects (sorting). It takes a well educated workforce for companies to invest in high productivity activities, a well educated workforce is the outcome of education, employment opprtunities, and agglomeration, and without the right infrastructure, the returns on such investments may not be high. But, at the end of the day, without investing in education, I think that addressing other margins will have little effectiveness in addressing the disparity of productivity and living standards.
Question 2: What is the most important contribution economic policymakers can make growth in the UK over the next decade?
Answer:
Other or don't know
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think a broad suite of policies are needed included some of those mentioned such as investment in human capital, foreign trade, and reforms to welfare systems providing both better social insurance and improved access and incentives to a good life for those coming from more challenging socio-economic backgrounds. There may also be a need for considering regulatory frameworks ensuring a better functioning market economy. On the positive side, the UK economy has some fundamental strengths which it can build upon and which possibly would increase the payoffs of undertaking these policies.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Euro weakness in 2022
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
Levelling Up Productivity Gaps in the UK
Question 2: Which policies could best help reduce regional productivity disparities?
Question 1: What is the primary factor driving regional productivity disparities in the UK?
Prospects for UK Economic Growth
Question 2: What is the most important contribution economic policymakers can make growth in the UK over the next decade?
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