Natalie Chen's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Warwick

Voting history

Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?

Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?

Answer:
Labour markets (e.g. unemployment hysteresis effects)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Unemployment is likely to rise significantly once the furlough scheme ends and this poses a significant risk to the economy.

Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions? 

Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Even once the pandemic has been contained, I feel it will take time for the economy to fully bounce back because people's behaviour has changed and this will affect consumption for some time. The increase in unemployment, together with the large number of bankrupcies, also mean that the recovery cannot be very fast.