Natalie Chen's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Warwick

Voting history

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
No tradeoff at all
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If we do not control the spread of the virus, and people are sick and die, the economy will suffer anyway so policymakers should do all they can to stop the spread.

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The lockdown is less restrictive than in March and is limited in time, so the economy should slow down but not too much.

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A small portion of the decline
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Some activity would have continued (restaurants etc. would have for instance remained open), but without any lockdown infections and deaths would have sky rocketed, people would have stopped going out and the economy would have taken a hit anyway.

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
By a large amount but temporarily
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The burden of homeschooling and housework has fallen in a disproportionate way on women. Gender inequality therefore widens. But the day things get back to some normality (as I hope they will), children will be back in school and women at work so the inequality in the longer run should to some extent dissipate.

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
By a large amount but temporarily
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Children from poorer households are less likely to receive help and support from their parents and have less access to the internet or to a computer at home. I feel that for them it will be more difficult to return to normality after a long break from education. Children from wealthier households continue to learn at home (even if less than usual) but there is some continuity in their education. Therefore I feel that inequality will go up.

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