Natalie Chen's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Warwick

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
By a large amount but temporarily
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The burden of homeschooling and housework has fallen in a disproportionate way on women. Gender inequality therefore widens. But the day things get back to some normality (as I hope they will), children will be back in school and women at work so the inequality in the longer run should to some extent dissipate.

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
By a large amount but temporarily
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Children from poorer households are less likely to receive help and support from their parents and have less access to the internet or to a computer at home. I feel that for them it will be more difficult to return to normality after a long break from education. Children from wealthier households continue to learn at home (even if less than usual) but there is some continuity in their education. Therefore I feel that inequality will go up.

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Moderate
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the effect on economic growth should be moderate because the effect of school closures will be very unequal across different types of children. While the poorer children are likely to be more negatively affected, the children from wealthier and more educated households continue to learn at home (even if less than in normal times) and should therefore be able to catch up once they return to school.

Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?

Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?

Answer:
Labour markets (e.g. unemployment hysteresis effects)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Unemployment is likely to rise significantly once the furlough scheme ends and this poses a significant risk to the economy.

Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions? 

Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Even once the pandemic has been contained, I feel it will take time for the economy to fully bounce back because people's behaviour has changed and this will affect consumption for some time. The increase in unemployment, together with the large number of bankrupcies, also mean that the recovery cannot be very fast.