Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?
Answer:
To a small degree and temporarily
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?
Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Answer:
Moderate
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
In theory the lost time could be made up over several years but given the obstructive attitude that teachers and teaching unions haved displayed so far I doubt that it will be. Their attitude contrasts strongly with that of NHS staff who have thrown themselves into the fight against the virus, often at considerable personal risk.
Having said that I think the economic damage due to lost schooling is likely to be quite small in comparison to other causes of damage. After all the global financial crisis has had a devastating effect on growth but without any loss of schooling.
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Answer:
None of the above, other, or no opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
International trade is likely to be slow to recover and this is beyond the UK's control.
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think recovery will be slow (1-5 years) and there is also likely to be a permanent level effect on GDP.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Economic Cost of School Closures
Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?
Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
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