Nicholas Oulton's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Senior Visiting Research Fellow

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between ½ and 2 percentage points
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Not confident

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
To a small degree and temporarily
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Moderate
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
In theory the lost time could be made up over several years but given the obstructive attitude that teachers and teaching unions haved displayed so far I doubt that it will be. Their attitude contrasts strongly with that of NHS staff who have thrown themselves into the fight against the virus, often at considerable personal risk. Having said that I think the economic damage due to lost schooling is likely to be quite small in comparison to other causes of damage. After all the global financial crisis has had a devastating effect on growth but without any loss of schooling.

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