Nicholas Oulton's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Senior Visiting Research Fellow

Voting history

Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?

Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?

Answer:
The growth rate of the real UK economy
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Current forecasts of UK GDP and productivity growth by the OBR are extraordinarily pessimistic by historical standards. Non-monetary policies can potentially raise growth but we have yet to see much in the way of concrete proposals here. If growth is as low as currently expected then I would expect inflation to be below target. If growth revives then there would be upward pressure on imnflation but these would be much easier for the BoE to manage.

 Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Inflation will be at the current target rate
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
My answer is a mean between two very different outcomes: see my answer to the next question.

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between ½ and 2 percentage points
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Not confident

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
To a small degree and temporarily
Confidence level:
Not confident

Pages