Nicholas Oulton's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Senior Visiting Research Fellow

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
To a small degree and temporarily
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Moderate
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
In theory the lost time could be made up over several years but given the obstructive attitude that teachers and teaching unions haved displayed so far I doubt that it will be. Their attitude contrasts strongly with that of NHS staff who have thrown themselves into the fight against the virus, often at considerable personal risk. Having said that I think the economic damage due to lost schooling is likely to be quite small in comparison to other causes of damage. After all the global financial crisis has had a devastating effect on growth but without any loss of schooling.

Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?

Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?

Answer:
None of the above, other, or no opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
International trade is likely to be slow to recover and this is beyond the UK's control.

Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions? 

Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think recovery will be slow (1-5 years) and there is also likely to be a permanent level effect on GDP.

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