Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Answer:
The growth rate of the real UK economy
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Current forecasts of UK GDP and productivity growth by the OBR are extraordinarily pessimistic by historical standards. Non-monetary policies can potentially raise growth but we have yet to see much in the way of concrete proposals here. If growth is as low as currently expected then I would expect inflation to be below target. If growth revives then there would be upward pressure on imnflation but these would be much easier for the BoE to manage.
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Inflation will be at the current target rate
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
My answer is a mean between two very different outcomes: see my answer to the next question.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
The Economic Cost of School Closures
Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?
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