Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the best estimate is around 3 pp. Of course, confidence bands are somewhat wide.
Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Answer:
Yes
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Answer:
Banning bond purchases from industries with no clear plan to get to zero emissions by 2050
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Effects of an embargo on Russian gas
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
The ECB’s Green Agenda
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Pages