Panicos Demetriades's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Leicester
Credentials: 
Professor of financial economics
Former Governor, Central Bank of Cyprus and ECB Governing Council member

Voting history

Monetary Policy and Inequality

Question 2: What role should inequality play in the monetary policy decisions (interest rate policy and quantitative easing)?

Answer:
No role
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
If monetary policy includes inequality in its remit, that will make the mandate of the central bank muddled, which could de anchor inflation expectations. The fewer the objectives of monetary policy, the easier it is to achieve them and to maintain clarity and transparency of the policy process. In fact, if you are to expand the remit, why stop at inequality, you can also add the environment, jobs and much more besides, all of which would almost certainly interfere with delivering on price stability! That does not mean that central banks shouldn’t attempt to analyse any effects of their policies on inequality. They should understand all the unintended consequences of their policies.

Question 1: How large is the impact of monetary policy on the joint distribution of income and wealth?

Answer:
Small
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
There’s no doubt that monetary policy has unintended consequences, however these are likely small, partly because they are working in opposite directions. For example, loose monetary policy may well increase e ployment opportunities which benefit the unemployed and the least well off. It at the same time raises asset prices, more so if it involves quantitative easing.

Central Bank Digital Currency for the UK

Question 2: What effect will the introduction of a CBDC have on UK banks?

Answer:
No or little effect
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
For the reasons, alluded to above CBDC will not displace but complement financial intermediation and will not be a major source of competition for funds. CBDC could benefit banks, if they end up providing the infrastructure and clearing system of this new form of payment.

Question 1: How beneficial would it be to the UK economy for the Bank of England to introduce a central bank digital currency in some form in the upcoming decade?

 

Answer:
Beneficial
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
It can be both beneficial and harmful for the reasons alluded to in the literature that you cite. It is hard to imagine a topology in which central banks displace financial intermediaries, although I agree with Haldane that in that world banking crises can be avoided. The reason is that without fractional reserve banking, we lose the inherent instability due to bank runs, but we also lose financial intermediation provided by the banks, which helps address all kinds of imperfect information problems in finance. Thus, it is not at all obvious that abandoning fractional reserve banking is in the public interest - indeed the Diamond Dubvig model shows that financial intermediation can help achieve the Pareto optimal allocation, as long as we can prevent bank runs from occurring (which explains lender of last resort and deposit insurance). If CBDC is introduced by BoE and indeed other CBs, it will likely be through financial intermediaries providing the interface, as central banks in general should not be aiming to displace intermediaries by taking deposits directly from the public. It will also likely come with relatively low limits, e.g. no higher than deposit insurance limits to prevent unfair competition with commercial banks. Additionally, there will have to be strict anti money laundering (AML) checks - something that the economic literature has not addressed. It is inconceivable that CBDC end up facilitating money laundering - which unregulated digital currencies often do.the reputation risks are so high that central banks should do everything possible to prevent it - which means there have to be identity checks at least at the entry point. A lot of work needs to be done to study CDBC by central banks considering introducing them, given the opportunities, challenges and risks. The outcome of this process in my view is that B digital currencies, if and when introduced, will be well regulated and will not constitute a AJ or source of competition to commercial banks. As such, their impact will be limited but on balance somewhat beneficial. Otherwise, they will not be introduced!

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Proposition 2: Asset prices and financial imbalances are best addressed using macroprudential tools and left out of the monetary policy decision making process.

 

Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
Yes. Please see my previous answer. Muddling the waters of monetary policy with macroprudential objectives is a recipe for destroying whatever is left of central bank independence. For further details, please see my latest book: Central bank independence and the future of the Euro, Agenda Publishing, 2019.

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