Paolo Surico's picture
London Business School
Associate professor of economics

Voting history

Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)

First question:

To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.

Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
An explicit reference value has proved a very transparent strategy to communicate monetary policy actions and a very effective guidance to coordinate the public expectations under (de-iure or de facto) inflation targeting regimes. It seems plausible to think that a similar framework may be useful to anchor investors' expectations in the government bond market. On the other hand, it seems hard to justify a specific numerical value relative to another one, as much as it is not unconceivable that an inflation target of, say, 3% (as opposed to the actual 2% in the UK) would have achieved a similar performance in terms of inflation stability since 1992.