Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
The UK economy is no longer in 'crisis' mode, justifying emergency low interest rates close to the zero bound, and also bank reserves, from QE operations, of around 25% of GDP.
This situation creates large distortions in savings markets: on the one hand absurd incentives to lend on car loans and mortgages, while on the other denying credit to small businesses (which are risk-penalised).
Ideally raising rates and reducing QE would be accompanied by an easing of bank regulation and 'macro-prudential controls'.
The Phillips Curve error term is sensitive to the factors listed above: immigration, global competition and so on. Plainly these have been dampening the response to unemployment; however there is no reason to believe this response has gone away.
Yes, there is some connection between the housing market and consumption but this is because both are driven by business cycle income effects; housing spending has a high income elasticity and so is highly correlated with consumption.
Currently the UK is experiencing a steady business cycle expansion whose demand direction is being shifted by the Brexit devaluation of some 15%, away from consumption towards net exports, profits and business investment.
Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
There are good signs of steady upward movement now outside London. London has been exceptionally strong until the recent correction. This seems to be a specific London correction, due to the stamp duty rate and also fears about a Corbyn attack on non-doms plus high taxes.
See my answer above. Partly responsible but as part of the overall regulatory/monetary situation.
Central banks can be considered generally responsible for the financial crisis and the responses to it. They permitted/encouraged a huge credit boom in the 2000s; they then brought in regulations that precipitated difficulties in the interbank market; these were not prevented by central banks from triggering the collapse of the system from Lehman on. Subsequently they have continued to over-regulate and over-buy bonds. The mess is in general due to poor central bank behaviour from 2000 onwards.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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Make sure to save each question separately
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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
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Global risks from rising debt and asset prices
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Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?
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