Philip Jung's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Dortmund
Credentials: 
Professor of Macroeconomics

Voting history

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The answer depends crucially on the rationing mechanism they will employ. If they do not allow prices for households to increase (and offer transfers based on past gas use) and if they ration industry by cutting gas proportional to last years use the cost will be substantial. If they use a sensible price mechanism, coupled with short time work and transfers, one can likely bound the cost below 5%.

ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation

Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.

Answer:
Inflation targeting
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “The European Central Bank should systematically allow for inflation to exceed its target to compensate for periods of below target inflation.”

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

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