Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?
Answer:
Joint borrowing by member states (e.g. Coronabonds)
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
There is a need for a mix of different instruments: joint borrowing + borrowing at the EU level + ECB backstop + increase in national debts. The only instrument to avoid is debt restructuring. We do not need a financial crisis on top of the Covid crisis
Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?
Answer:
5-10% of GDP
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If the EU is able to provide a bit more than 5% of EZ GDP and this comes on top of the national economic stimulus this would be a huge economic and political sucess and would allow to reduce thhe probability of a prolonged recession
Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
The uncertainty on the level of output gaps and potential output is very large and recent research has shown that standard measures of potential output responds to monetary shocks. In this type of situation better to err in the direction of waiting observed pressures on wages and prices to tighten.
The answer depends how one defines strong labour market. Standard unemployment rates may not be enough to judge the strength of the labor market. Participation rates, non standard jobs, part time jobs... may be as or more important.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options
Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?
Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
======================================================================
Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
======================================================================
======================================================================
Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
======================================================================
Bitcoin and the City
======================================================================
Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?
======================================================================
Pages