Ramon Marimon's picture
Affiliation: 
European University institute and UPF-BarcelonaGSE
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics
Pierre Werner Chair

Voting history

The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options

Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?

Answer:
Expanded EU budget (with possible borrowing at the EU level)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
As we have argued (A. Bénasy et al. VoxEU 6 & 20/04/20), I will use several instruments, but if I had to signal one I would have a Recovery Fund, based on Expanded EU budget, but managed outside the EC, possibly EIB.

Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?

 

 

Answer:
5-10% of GDP
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The problem is that no matter the number is not significant without knowing that it would be: 1) transfers from EU (enlarged) budget; 2) new EU or EA debt, backed by the budget (i.e. all MS); 3) debt that would be specific countries liabilities (e.g. ESM, SURE), or 4) Credit guarantees (EIB). If it was mostly (1) a much smaller figure would be needed, although (3) and (4) should play their role too.

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
From the perspective of the labour market there is no reason to increase interest rates, from the perspective of still indebted economies in need to rebuild their capital even less. Nevertheless, from the international perspective of capital markets one also needs to take into account what others do.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If by "a strong labour market" means "low unemployment" I disagree in two respects. First, "low unemployment" is not a good indicator of a labour market being strong, high employment rate is a better one and even better if it takes into account of which type of employment (e.g. stable, productive, etc.). Second, even with a better measure, the causality effect on 'inflationary pressure' is weak theoretically and empirically. In any case, and in almost any measure of 'strength", in many European countries we are far from having "strong labour markets", unless 'strong' means burdensome...

Bitcoin and the City

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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
No more than the oversight of 'fake news'. Unless the right answer to Question 1 turns out to be NO.

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