The survival of the Eurozone depends upon the balance between the recognition that European polities have to comprise to maintain political stability and the pressures on those polities from the economic stresses caused by the political compromise that the Eurozone represents. If Germany is undervalued then its partners must on average be overvalued, and adjustment to overvaluations in France, Italy and Spain can be painful, as it can only come by having lower inflation that in Germany. None of these countries has a particularly flexible labour market. Unemployment will for a period be higher than otherwise in these countries, and real wage growth will be slower. The current cconomic stresses seem rather high in these countries, and they could go on for some years. This in turn may lead to political threats to the Eurozone, and also to the liberal democracy that has been essential for maintaining the longest period of peace in Europe since the 17th century. As these threats rise, Many people in Europe consider that what has happened so far is better than having their countries invaded by the Germans again, and they are sure if the German polity wishes to control their mineral and industrial assets again they will pay In cash to do so. The balance of advantages may be changing, and a new compromise may be needed, with Germany taking the lead in this. The scale of relative overvaluation depends upon what one judges the private sector structural surplus to be, and in our non-Ricardian world on on the scale of government surpluses. Changing the German public sector surplus would be an obvious step to take to maintain stability and democracy.
Question 5: Voters think that the preferences of economists do not align with their own preferences. (This includes the possibility that they thought that the predicted negative economic consequences would not affect them personally).
Do you agree this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
Question 4: Voters did not believe the economic arguments put forward (for example, because they thought the arguments put forward by macroeconomists with dissenting views made more sense or because voters have little faith in economists in general).
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
German current account surpluses
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Question 1: Do you agree that German current account surpluses are a threat to the Eurozone economy?
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Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?
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Question 7: Voters did not know that there was near-unanimity among economists.
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 6: Economists did not explain the reasons for this consensus in sufficiently clear language.
Do you agree this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 5: Voters think that the preferences of economists do not align with their own preferences. (This includes the possibility that they thought that the predicted negative economic consequences would not affect them personally).
Do you agree this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 4: Voters did not believe the economic arguments put forward (for example, because they thought the arguments put forward by macroeconomists with dissenting views made more sense or because voters have little faith in economists in general).
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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