Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
Persuasive politicians, who describe their opponents as 'like the Nazi scientists who criticised Einstein' are difficult to answer when few academic economists have any media capacity or experience. If the public are unaware that we are expressing more than our opinions, but rather the result of careful empirical research, then they will be hard to influence. They may prefer their own opinions. The decision to leave was probably based on a generalised unhappiness with current conditions, with no evidence being presented to explain the EU's lack of role in that. Whether preferences describe political decision making is another question, but we saw a political rejection of the current situation. We do not clearly know why, but we do know referenda are the wrong way to make such complex decisions. That people have voted to leave does not change the outcome of leaving. Underlying growth will be low for a decade, and we will be 3 to 6 percent poorer than otherwise in ten years, with less foreign investment and less competition. There is no need to change what we are saying, and we have to argue for outcomes that minimise the damage.
Question 1:Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
It is clear that the profession needs to change in order to influence the public debate more effectively. However, leadership may not be the answer. The profession holds policy advice in low regard, and few members communicate wit the public. The incentives we face need changing. Promotion depends on publications and REF evaluations, and policy related output is not highly graded. Whilst this remains the case we will not be noticed. For instance, few of the group of economist who appeared in the Daily Telegraph 2 days before the referendum had ever been on the Today programme, the Evening News or the Ten O'Clock News. Nobody outside the blogosphere had had heard of them, and their views were not important. Until that changes, and economists show an interest in, and value, policy related work, we will be ignored. Much needs to change, but it is deeper than ''leadership'.
Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
Financial markets look forward, and exit, which remains unlikely, entails a different future and this will be brought forward. The impacts are difficult to assess in advance, but are likely to be large.
The UK financial sector is likely to suffer significantly if we leave the EU. Passporting rights do matter, and access to the ECB infrastructure was important during the 2008-9 crisis. The loss of both will reduce efficiency and cost market share. More importantly, the current EU financial regulation environment has a single market in financial services that does not coincide with the regulatory area under the control of the ECB. Although this is unwise, it is of benefit to the UK. Once the UK has left the EU the ECB will tidy this up, and the UK financial system will find itself with the same access as the US, and hence firms will move. The long run impact on London will be significant and negative, but at least that means we will not need a third runway at Heathrow.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?
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Question 3: Voters chose to leave the EU for non-economic reasons.
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
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Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector
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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?
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