Ricardo Reis's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
AW Phillips Professor of Economics

Voting history

Artificial Intelligence and the Economy

Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Historically, the correlation between new technology adoption and unemployment, at the macro level, is close to zero once enough time has gone by. But, a decade is sufficiently short as a period of time, that it could go either way.

Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Increase (to 4-6%)
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Forecasting future growth over a decade is very hard, so "not confident" is the most relevant part of this answer.

Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth

Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?

Answer:
Tax policy and improved policy certainty
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Hard to pick one, most of them are needed.

Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?

Answer:
N/A or Other
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
All of the options, and I do not have the tools and confidence to quantify their relative contribution with precision.

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy rates will be appropriate in 2023.
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Not even the ECB is confident, since at this inflection point, there is a lot of uncertainty. As in the previous question, more than whether the peak is 3.5, 3.75 or 4%, is how long will be needed to keep rates there to bring inflation decisively back on target

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