Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Historically, the correlation between new technology adoption and unemployment, at the macro level, is close to zero once enough time has gone by. But, a decade is sufficiently short as a period of time, that it could go either way.
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Increase (to 4-6%)
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Forecasting future growth over a decade is very hard, so "not confident" is the most relevant part of this answer.
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Answer:
ECB policy rates will be appropriate in 2023.
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Not even the ECB is confident, since at this inflection point, there is a lot of uncertainty. As in the previous question, more than whether the peak is 3.5, 3.75 or 4%, is how long will be needed to keep rates there to bring inflation decisively back on target
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
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