Ricardo Reis's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
AW Phillips Professor of Economics

Voting history

The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the UK Economy

Question 1: Relative to the Bank of England’s planned trajectory for interest rates at the beginning of the year, the Bank should respond to geopolitical events by:

Answer:
Raising interest rates more rapidly
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 3: Relative to tax plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:

Answer:
Cutting tax rates, but allowing revenues to increase via inflation
Confidence level:
Confident

Towards a High-Wage, High-Productivity Economy

Question 2: What is your evaluation of the following statement: “A well-designed government-stipulated wage increase can lead to higher productivity”?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Depends on what you mean by "well-designed". In the UK context, and given current debates on the topic, the design that would emerge is most likely to not significantly increase productivity.

Question 1: Which of the following statements most closely reflects your understanding of the relationship between productivity and wages.

Answer:
Wage increases can in some cases increase long-run productivity
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
It depends on how you interpret productivity. If labor productivity, as measured by output per hour or worker, then a clear yes: the labor share of income is approximately constant in the long run, so higher wage is one-to-one correlated with higher average product of labor. If total factor productivity, then no, as most economic mechanisms for an association would not survive free entry in the long run.

Post-Covid Fiscal Rules for the UK

Question 3: Which of the following variables should fiscal rules target to best improve the performance of the UK macroeconomic policy going forward.

Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
A combination of the options you listed. As important is to take a probabilistic approach that weighs different scenarios for the evolution of a few key variables outside the government's control (like interest rates)

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