Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Answer:
Other or no opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is not legally necessary to adopt my approach to question 1, so the "if" is not satisfied. More generally, I think incorporating carbon targets for central banks may eventually be a good idea. But I'm not sure how I would do it right now in an effective way, given what I know of research in the area. There are some good ways of changing the ECB's mandate to incorporate this that I would support, and many bad ones that I would not support.
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Answer:
Aiming for market neutrality
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This may change with its mandate review but, right now, given the goals of the bond-purchasing programs and the targets of the ECB, market neutrality seems to be the right answer. But, and this is important, defining and measuring market neutrality is not straightforward. The Papoutsi et al research mentioned in the question argues that current measures of market neutrality are flawed, and biased against green investments. I think there are further reasons why this is so, including an over-reliance on credit rating agencies. So, aim for market neutrality, but measure better what this is, and doing so may well lead to buying more green bonds than in the current portfolio.
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Answer:
Past monetary policy decisions and other monetary factors
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I wanted to pick two: public debt and monetary factors, as they are tightly linked.
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Inflation will be at the current target rate
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I see a large risk of high inflation; but a likewise high risk of near deflation. Overall, I see the two roughly balancing out, so on average I think inflation may well be at current target rate. But, perhaps more relevant, I put a quite high probability that it will not be there. (I also think there is a good chance that the target will change.)
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The ECB’s Green Agenda
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
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