Question 1: How beneficial would it be to the UK economy for the Bank of England to introduce a central bank digital currency in some form in the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Beneficial
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Given current state of knowledge, pros outweigh the cons. But we are still learning about it.
Proposition 2: Asset prices and financial imbalances are best addressed using macroprudential tools and left out of the monetary policy decision making process.
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
They should not be left our to the monetary policy decision process, even if macrprudential tools are the first line of defense.
Proposition 1: The Bank of England’s mandate should be officially modified to take housing or other asset prices into account in its monetary policy decisions.
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The Bank can (or not) respond to asset prices more (or less) than it does right now, without needing to change the remit, as recently re-stated: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/letter/2021/march/2021-mpc-remit-letter.pdf
If a change were to occur, it might be better stated in terms of an alternative price index to the CPI (for instance, a dynamic version that takes into account intertemporal substitution would put a larger weight on asset prices: https://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers/99-dpi.pdf )
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Answer:
Other or no opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is not legally necessary to adopt my approach to question 1, so the "if" is not satisfied. More generally, I think incorporating carbon targets for central banks may eventually be a good idea. But I'm not sure how I would do it right now in an effective way, given what I know of research in the area. There are some good ways of changing the ECB's mandate to incorporate this that I would support, and many bad ones that I would not support.
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
Answer:
Aiming for market neutrality
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This may change with its mandate review but, right now, given the goals of the bond-purchasing programs and the targets of the ECB, market neutrality seems to be the right answer. But, and this is important, defining and measuring market neutrality is not straightforward. The Papoutsi et al research mentioned in the question argues that current measures of market neutrality are flawed, and biased against green investments. I think there are further reasons why this is so, including an over-reliance on credit rating agencies. So, aim for market neutrality, but measure better what this is, and doing so may well lead to buying more green bonds than in the current portfolio.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Central Bank Digital Currency for the UK
Question 1: How beneficial would it be to the UK economy for the Bank of England to introduce a central bank digital currency in some form in the upcoming decade?
Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Proposition 2: Asset prices and financial imbalances are best addressed using macroprudential tools and left out of the monetary policy decision making process.
Proposition 1: The Bank of England’s mandate should be officially modified to take housing or other asset prices into account in its monetary policy decisions.
The ECB’s Green Agenda
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Question 1: Which of the following actions is the most advisable approach for European Central Bank to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies?
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