Ricardo Reis's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
AW Phillips Professor of Economics

Voting history

The UK Productivity Puzzle

Question 1: Which of the following was the most important cause for the slowdown in UK productivity growth?

Answer:
(Insufficient) investment in research and development
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The slowdown in investment post-Brexit has lowered the capital stock, which lowers output per hour. Before the referendum, a combination of the housing boom, the financial crisis, and misallocation of capital across sectors all in different ways contribute to either too little or mis-directed investment. I picked this option because it was the one closer to "Insufficient investment", but I would not add R&D exclusively to that answer.

Question 4: Which of the following policies would be your second choice of policy to boost private sector productivity, in addition to or absent your first choice?

Answer:
Investments in human capital including education and job retraining.
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
If fewer high-skilled immigrants want to make the UK its home, the country will have to step up significantly the investment in its universities.

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
As a simple plot, or correlation, the Phillips curve is a very unreliable economic law. But, as a structural relation that encapsulates the strength of nominal rigidities, monetary non-neutrality, or deviations from the classical dichotomy, it is one of the most powerful, effective, and useful pieces of applied economics. I am interpreting the vague term "strong labor market" as a measure of real activity standing fot the structural interpretation.

Bitcoin and the City

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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Only as much as we regulate gold, silver, baseball cards, or any other asset that can potentially emerge as a currency (and we know from monetary theory that many can). Market regulators can regulate it, as the CFTC will be doing, but central banks through macro prudential regulation should be weary of jumping to tightly regulate anything that moves, including speculative new assets that banks and SIFIs should not be holding in the first place.

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