Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Answer:
Past monetary policy decisions and other monetary factors
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I wanted to pick two: public debt and monetary factors, as they are tightly linked.
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Inflation will be at the current target rate
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I see a large risk of high inflation; but a likewise high risk of near deflation. Overall, I see the two roughly balancing out, so on average I think inflation may well be at current target rate. But, perhaps more relevant, I put a quite high probability that it will not be there. (I also think there is a good chance that the target will change.)
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Forecasting is hard. For growth rates, using a random walk, so expecting no difference seems a good way to reflect how not confident I am.
Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Answer:
2% or less
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Forecasting levels of output four years out is hard. So many bad and good policies, lucky and unlucky shocks could happen until then. See https://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers/18-wrong.pdf
Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
Answer:
Small tradeoff
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The tradeoff was not there back in March, since controlling the virus was needed to both save lives as well as to preserve economic activity. Now, uncertainty is lower (even if the danger is as high), and the marginal pain of economic losses is higher. So there possibly is a tradeoff.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance
Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
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