As a simple plot, or correlation, the Phillips curve is a very unreliable economic law. But, as a structural relation that encapsulates the strength of nominal rigidities, monetary non-neutrality, or deviations from the classical dichotomy, it is one of the most powerful, effective, and useful pieces of applied economics. I am interpreting the vague term "strong labor market" as a measure of real activity standing fot the structural interpretation.
Only as much as we regulate gold, silver, baseball cards, or any other asset that can potentially emerge as a currency (and we know from monetary theory that many can). Market regulators can regulate it, as the CFTC will be doing, but central banks through macro prudential regulation should be weary of jumping to tightly regulate anything that moves, including speculative new assets that banks and SIFIs should not be holding in the first place.
Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
Bitcoin is inadequate as a currency. As an asset that provides some small benefits to its users---chiefly anonymity and irreversibility of transactions---and that has a fairly limited and steady supply though, it is quite similar to gold. Even the arguments of some of its fans are eerily familiar to those that one has heard for decades about gold. Like gold, it fluctuates wildly in value and it is subject to fads and manias. As long as regulators treat it as a highly speculative investment, like so many other investments out there, then it should pose as much risk to the financial system as so many of these do.
The negative impact on the construction sector, which is quite leveraged and already in bad shape according to stock market valuations, and the reduction in consumption would likely lead to a slowdown in GDP growth in the short run.
Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
Predicting house prices (or any other asset price) is close to being a fool's errand. Moreover, the UK's economic prospects have so much uncertainty around them as a result of Brexit, that it is very hard to make any forecasts for the state of the economy or the housing market in particular. Finally, the budget for next year can have a significant impact on house prices depending on what the promised reforms of the UK housing market turn out to be. Given all of these, I find it hard to make a prediction with any certainty on what will happen to house prices.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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Bitcoin and the City
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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?
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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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Make sure to save each question separately
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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
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