Richard Portes's picture
Affiliation: 
London Business School and CEPR

Voting history

Prospects for UK Economic Growth

Question 2: What is the most important contribution economic policymakers can make growth in the UK over the next decade? 

Answer:
Raising public investment (in physical and human capital)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Aggregate demand pressure is indeed important, but investment (including education) is key, and private investment should follow well-directed public investment - if we can manage that.

Question 1: How do you see prospects for future (per capita) GDP growth in the UK in the next decade?

Answer:
Low growth because of UK-specific structural challenges
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Start with persistently low investment. Continue with Brexit and fall in trade. Add underperforming education system and impediments to research (e.g. destruction of research collaboration through EU Horizon programme and government indifference to science). Mix with continuing overemphasis on financial sector. Blend with all the global factors left out of this answer.

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Not much room for or likely effectiveness of fiscal policy in dealing with this supply shock.

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Economists should put some faith in Baqaee et al., which is the best supported estimate we have. Can't take seriously the German BDI.

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