Richard Portes's picture
Affiliation: 
London Business School and CEPR

Voting history

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too high in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
Yes, (even) unilaterally
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Yes, but only insofar as exchange-rate depreciation might increase inflationary pressures or threaten financial stability.

Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?

Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Confident

Prospects for UK Economic Growth

Question 2: What is the most important contribution economic policymakers can make growth in the UK over the next decade? 

Answer:
Raising public investment (in physical and human capital)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Aggregate demand pressure is indeed important, but investment (including education) is key, and private investment should follow well-directed public investment - if we can manage that.

Question 1: How do you see prospects for future (per capita) GDP growth in the UK in the next decade?

Answer:
Low growth because of UK-specific structural challenges
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Start with persistently low investment. Continue with Brexit and fall in trade. Add underperforming education system and impediments to research (e.g. destruction of research collaboration through EU Horizon programme and government indifference to science). Mix with continuing overemphasis on financial sector. Blend with all the global factors left out of this answer.

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