Question 1:Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
Only body that could 'represent' views is RES. It has for many years had a successful media initiative. Fine for publicising research, but couldn't legitimately speak for profession except on matters like research funding.
Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
We are running a current account deficit of 6-7% of GDP, financed by portfolio capital inflows and FDI. It is highly likely that there would be a 'sudden stop' to these capital flows, a sharp depreciation of sterling, and a sharp fall in asset prices. We would no longer be the 'safe haven' that we have been in 'risk off' episodes of recent years. We could draw on our Fed swap line for dollar liquidity needs, but that would not deal with the problem of quickly bringing down the current account deficit. Typically in these episodes, the exchange rate adjustment takes time to affect exports, and the fall in the deficit comes through a compression of imports that in turn comes from a fall in output, employment and incomes (as one saw in almost all advanced countries in 2009). Depending on its assessment of balance sheet effects, the Bank of England might feel compelled to raise policy interest rates to defend the exchange rate.
We would first lose all euro clearing business, because the ECB would require that it move to a euro-area country, and we would no longer have the protection of the ECJ (which stopped them from doing this before). In the likely case that we would stay out of the Single Market (because the 'Norwegian model' would be unacceptable to the Leave leaders), we would lose access for financial products and automatic 'passporting' rights, as well as any influence on EU financial regulation. Many activities and much financial sector employment would go to Frankfurt, Paris, and Dublin - Edinburgh as well, if Scotland were then to secede.
Question 2: Do you agree that central banks should operationalise the use of these alternative tools of unconventional monetary policy for use either in the near term, or in the future, as economic conditions warrant?
Question 1:Do you agree that central banks should continue to use the unconventional tools of monetary policy deployed in response to the global financial crisis as part of monetary policy under normal economic conditions?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?
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Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
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Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector
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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?
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The future role of (un)conventional unconventional monetary policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that central banks should operationalise the use of these alternative tools of unconventional monetary policy for use either in the near term, or in the future, as economic conditions warrant?
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Question 1: Do you agree that central banks should continue to use the unconventional tools of monetary policy deployed in response to the global financial crisis as part of monetary policy under normal economic conditions?
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