Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The ECB should focus on stabilizing inflation and real activity in the Eurozone.
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The ECB's more cautious policy rate hikes (relative to the Fed's response) were most likely a key factor behind the euro's weakness in 2022. This more timid ECB reaction reflects both real and financial factors: for example, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is having a more detrimental effect on real activity in Europe (than in the U.S.); similarly, the public finances of key Eurozone member countries remain very fragile, and could be destabilized by sharp interest rate hikes.
Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Euro weakness in 2022
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
Effects of an embargo on Russian gas
Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Pages