Roberto Perotti's picture
Affiliation: 
IGIER, Università Bocconi
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the ECB's monetary policy masks structural problems of member states?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
There is no doubt that high-debt countries, and Southern European countries in general, have benefited enormously from the "whatever it takes" of Draghi. There is little doubt that the decline in interest rates on their public debt has encouraged them to take it easy in terms of their fiscal policy, after some effort aroun 2011 and 2012. This is a very standard moral hazard problem of loose monetary policy. However, there is a huge uncertainty regarding the appropriatness of a very tight fiscal policy in these countries anyway; in addition, none of them gives signs of sheer fiscal irresponsibility, just some relaxation. In light of this, again prudence would suggest accepting these side costs and continuing with the current monetary policy for some time.

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Question 1: Do you agree that exceptionally loose monetary policy by the European Central Bank is no longer appropriate?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is true that the current level of low nominal interest rates probably has adverse effects on the functioning and profitability of banks and especially insurance companies (the latter especially in Germany because of specifici regulation in that country). These effects are however not well understood yet. On the other hand, inflation in Europe is still extremely low, and displays very few signs of increasing. Given that most of Europe is still doing between OK and badly in terms of output growth and output gap (whatever that is ....), prudence would suggest continuing with the present monetary policy at least until inflation shows some signs of rising.