Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
Tax policy and improved policy certainty
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Once again, all of the policies mentioned here have a role to play. But each of those policies can have both harmful or beneficial effects depending on how they are implemented.
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
Labor force participation
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
First I would note that ‘potential output’ cannot be defined in the absence of a heavy dose of economic theory. Second, there is no unique reason why this constructed concept is lower in the UK than in other countries: all of the reasons mentioned here have some role to play. Finally, potential output is not the same as output per worker which is also lower in the UK than many other countries and it is the fall in output per worker that is the more worrying statistic.
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too high in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
My answer is based on the supposition that rates peak ABOVE 3.5%. Long term real interest rates appear to be falling world-wide as a consequence of demographics and slow-down in productivity growth. I am concerned that a path of interest rates that goes beyond the current planned hike to 3.5% will be overkill and will trigger a recession. Asset markets already appear nervous. Further rate hikes will sppok them further and that will not be good for employment and growth.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
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