Roger Farmer's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Warwick
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A substantial portion or the entire decline
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The incidence of Covid falls almost entirely on the elderly. At the risk of being misinterpreted the elderly do not contribute substantially to GDP. This is NOT a moral judgement of any kind. It is a statement of fact.

Should the ECB Reformulate its Inflation Objective?

Question 3: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly recognize unemployment and/or economic growth as a secondary aim, secondary to its price stability mandate.”

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I could foresee that reallocations of household tasks and gender based reallocations in corporate structures might have persistent effects on the way that adults choose to spend their time.

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
To a small degree and temporarily
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
See my answer to 1. Social structures, like human bodies, heal quickly in response to minor abrasions.

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
None
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
“Economic growth” is a nebulous concept. If measured by year on year real GDP growth, it is already a statistic with a very high variance. One year of lost schooling will at best show up as a rounding error over a 10 to 15 year horizon. If the closures were to persist for several years, they would begin to have serious consequences not just for economic growth, but for the broader social fabric.

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