Roger Farmer's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Warwick
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Bitcoin and the City

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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Bitcoin can go much higher. But then it will fall much further when the crash comes. Ironically, that crash is likely to be triggered by regulation which becomes more likely, the more successful Bitcoin becomes. Central banks should act sooner rather than later. To be truly successful, Bitcoin must become a currency: not a speculative asset. If that happens, it will generate a reversion to a gold standard like regime in which central bank control of the currency becomes irrelevant. Central banks cannot and will not let that happen.

House Prices and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?

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Make sure to save each question separately

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Over the medium to long term, wealth is a significant driver of employment and changes in employment are an important driver of changes in real GDP. Housing wealth is over half of all UK wealth and, if house price growth falls or reverses, there will be a significant feedback effect on to measured growth.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Although I see some chance of this happening, there are too many factors on both sides of the equation to have much confidence in that prediction.

Global risks from rising debt and asset prices

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Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The alternative, given what was politically feasible, would have been much worse.

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Question 1: Does the world economy face heightened risks arising from an excess of public and private debt and/or inflated asset prices?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
PE values are close to all time highs. They can go up further. But they WILL eventually crash with very bad consequences.

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