Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
There is some empirical evidence in Holly, Pesaran and Yamagata (2011) - at least up to the start of the great recession - that a ripple effect emanates from London, and in time spreads out to other regions. We found also that bubbles in London house prices are associated with a prior boom in New York house prices, presumably because of closely connected financial markets. However, more recently the boom in London house prices has been affected also by Chinese and Russian buyers as well as New York.
Holly, S., M. Hashem Pesaran and Takashi Yamagata (2011),"The Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in the UK”. Journal of Urban Economics, 69, 1, 2-23.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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Make sure to save each question separately
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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
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Global risks from rising debt and asset prices
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Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?
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