Simon Wren-Lewis's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Oxford
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?

Answer:
The MRO rate will peak above 3.5%.
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?

Answer:
Very likely
Confidence level:
Very confident

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too high in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Since the end of 2019, the US has grown by around 5%, while growth in Germany and France is only just over zero and 1% respectively. This suggests that Germany and France are operating below capacity, so strong rate increases make little sense. The ECB is overreacting.

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Very confident

Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?

Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Not confident

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