Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK?
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The UK government could set terms which would mean MU was of little risk to the continuing UK, although they might be a problem for Scotland.
Question 1
Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?
Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
My only caveat is if the UK left the EU, in which case an independent Scotland that was an EU member could be better off.
Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Although I would not put the risk of deflation that high, this is irrelevant to policy in the Eurozone. Inflation at -0.1 is only slightly worse than inflation of +0.1% - there is nothing magic about negative inflation. What is clear is that inflation is too low in the Eurozone, and that recovery is too weak, so both monetary and fiscal policy need to change.
Question 2
Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Weak growth in the Eurozone is not helpful to anyone. However I doubt that weak Eurozone growth would be enough on its own to halt the UK recovery.
Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014
Question 2
Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK?
Question 1
Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?
Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014
Question 1
Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?
Question 2
Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?
Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014
Question 2
Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
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