Question 2: What is the most important contribution economic policymakers can make growth in the UK over the next decade?
Answer:
Improving trade relations with the EU and/or other countries
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
See my answer to Q1. Reducing trade barriers with the EU (realistically through a soft Brexit) is critical. However maintaining a high level of aggregate demand and high public investment will also be very important. In contrast trying to 'repair' public finances will almost certainly reduce both aggregate demand and public investment and will therefore reduce growth.
Question 1: How do you see prospects for future (per capita) GDP growth in the UK in the next decade?
Answer:
Low growth because of UK-specific structural challenges
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The specific structural factor for the UK is Brexit. This will depress investment and/or technical progress because of reduced trade and less FDI. However I suspect weak demand and international structural factors will also play a lesser role.
Question 1: Which of the following factors is the primary reason for the rise in inflation in 2021?
Answer:
Supply constraints
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
As UK output remains well below its pre-pandemic trend, we can eliminate excess demand as a cause. There is no sign of higher persistent wage inflation, so equally this has nothing to do with generalised pressure from the labour market (and higher expectations). We do know that both the pandemic and Brexit has caused supply problems.
Question 2: Will the inflation surge of 2021 prove persistent?
Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Forecasting inflation is a mug's game, because it depends on so many factors. What is clear is that the UK has not undertaken a large fiscal stimulus like the US, which means there will be no excess inflation caused by demand pressure. As the US experience suggests the pandemic did little to influence potential, which means any inflation will be temporary and should be ignored by the Bank.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Prospects for UK Economic Growth
Question 2: What is the most important contribution economic policymakers can make growth in the UK over the next decade?
Question 1: How do you see prospects for future (per capita) GDP growth in the UK in the next decade?
Surging Inflation in the UK
Question 1: Which of the following factors is the primary reason for the rise in inflation in 2021?
Question 2: Will the inflation surge of 2021 prove persistent?
Towards a High-Wage, High-Productivity Economy
Question 2: What is your evaluation of the following statement: “A well-designed government-stipulated wage increase can lead to higher productivity”?
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