Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
Those voting Leave wanted control over EU immigration, and it is pretty clear that EU membership precludes that. However polling evidence also showed that most would not be prepared to pay for this: indeed many thought restricting immigration would lead to economic benefits. This suggests the message of economics that leaving would be costly failed to get through or was not believed. Understanding why that is is crucial, and although I indicate that I think it was largely a media failure, we really need some good research on this (relatively quickly while it is fresh in people's minds).
Question 1:Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
The media typically fail to inform readers or viewers when an economic view represents a broad consensus or a small minority. I frequently heard media discussion of Brexit economics which failed in this way. At the very least we need two things. First, an ability through regular surveys of ALL academic economists (not just it's 'stars') to find out economists views are on key issues. It should be fairly easy for a body like the RES to organise these. Second, we need representatives to speak to these views, rather than their own. That will be more difficult, but should not be impossible.
Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
I think, as far as the short term is concerned, the emphasis on "financial disruption" is misplaced, and perhaps even a deliberate scare tactic. The exchange rate will fall on Brexit, but for good economic reasons. The economy may enter recession, but again for reasons unrelated to "financial disruption". As a result I doubt if interest rates will rise.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?
====================================================================
Question 3: Voters chose to leave the EU for non-economic reasons.
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
====================================================================
====================================================================
Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
====================================================================
====================================================================
Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
====================================================================
Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector
====================================================================
Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
====================================================================
====================================================================
Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?
====================================================================
Pages