Question 2: Do you agree that the outcome of the general election will have non-trivial consequences for aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP)?
Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Additional austerity will have some negative impact on GDP, as recent analysis in the National Institute Economic Review suggests, unless monetary policy is very active. The real danger is if some significant negative shock hits the UK. In that case interest rates will be forced to their (new) lower bound, and the negative impact of additional austerity could be much greater, as was the case in 2010-2011.
The election could also have a significant impact on activity because of the proposed EU referendum. We have little idea on how much investment might be postponed because of this, but it could be significant in macro terms.
Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?
Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
This is a joke, right? The only interesting question is how much GDP has been lost as a result of austerity. Based on OBR numbers, you can derive a 'lowest estimate' cumulative GDP loss of 5% of GDP (that is about £1,500 for each adult and child). A best guess could be nearer 10% of GDP, although a lot depends on how monetary policy would have reacted. That loss has, somewhat unusually, been more evenly spread as a result of a substantial decline in real wages.
Question 1: Do you agree that the simultaneous release of the policy decision, the enhanced minutes (including the voting record) of the MPC meeting and (in the relevant months) the release of the Inflation Report will facilitate inference on the likely stance of monetary policy?
The Warsh Review recommendations made sense. The Bank's response does not, for reasons set out quite clearly in the piece by Eichengreen and Geraats. If the Bank seriously wants to improve its transparency, it should make and publish forecasts of what interest rates will be, as the Fed now does.
Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
It would be a disaster. The Eurozone (and the IMF) made a number of serious mistakes during the 2010-12 crisis. Now is their chance to partly undo those mistakes. A Syriza victory would be the best thing to happen in the Eurozone for some time.
Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
If the Eurozone takes a mature view, and agrees to negotiate with Greece, the outcome will be beneficial for both Greece and the Eurozone as a whole. There are no necessary implications for other countries. After all, Greece has had the terms of its debt adjusted before and no changes have been made elsewhere.
There are two reasons why I am not confident about this view. First, I am not confident that the Eurozone will be mature about this. It may try to play what is a very weak hand (in contrast Greece has a strong hand) and make all kinds of silly threats, which will only do the Eurozone harm. Second, other countries may be encouraged to seek debt relief. They have every right to do so. Now of course that raises risk premiums, but that is all part of the calculation that each government has to make.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity
Question 2: Do you agree that the outcome of the general election will have non-trivial consequences for aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP)?
Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?
Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England
Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone
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Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
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