Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
Answer:
Small tradeoff
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The answer depends on whether or not the search for an effective vaccine and other treatments is successful. If it is, then lockdowns and other public health measures can act as a bridge, saving lives (or more accurately saving a few years of life - 10 or less on average, given the age-mortality profile of those infected) but at considerable economic cost. In this case, the nature of the trade-off is clear. (The news on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is obviously encouraging but there is still a long way to go before we can be sure that it is the answer and there is also the possibility of the virus mutating in the meantime.)
If, however, the search for a vaccine is unsuccessful, then we have to learn to live with disease and the unavoidable destination is herd immunity. Getting there will involve a considerable number of premature deaths, though behavioual changes, mandated or voluntary, can affect the fraction of the population that need to be infected before herd immunity is achieved. In this case, the trade-offs are more subtle, involving setting the economic costs from periodic health restrictions against the benefits from preventing hospitals being overwhelmed.
In both cases, it makes sense to adopt the most effective methods of controlling the virus. Experience in Asia strongly suggests that an effective track, trace and isolate system is the key to limiting the economic costs of keeping the virus in check.
Finally, it is worth noting that the data are not strongly suggestive of a trade-off between lives and livelihoods. Looking across countries there is a very clear positive, rather than negative, correlation between covid deaths/million and the GDP loss during the first wave.
Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance
Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
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