Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
Given the uncertainties that we are facing in labour markets, the signal given to markets by an MPC interest rate rise will confuse markets even more. Better wait until there is a clear understanding of what is going on
Because of structural changes in the labour market such as deunionisation, shift to services, foreign competition, automation and the rise in inequality, it is not clear any more what is a strong labour market. If by it we mean low unemployment then it is not a good indicator of inflationary pressures because in the old days the inflationary pressures originated in manufacturing and unionised workers which have become too small a group to matter
It is difficult to say whether the slowing down of house prices will cause a slowdown in GDP growth. I believe it is more likely that the same causes of the weakening of the housing market will cause a slowdown of GDP growth. If house prices actually fall they will contribute further to the slowdown
Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
London is traditionally a leader in house price movements. I believe the cooling off is due to uncertainty about the Brexit deal and I do not see any reason why the rest of the country would be immune to that - although I also think that Brexit will have a bigger impact on the London economy than elsewhere
Industrial policy should be directed to new technology and new industries, not to preserving jobs in established industries. A good policy internalised the externalities of new technologies
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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Make sure to save each question separately
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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
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A “new” UK industrial strategy ?
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Question 1: Do you agree that the UK needs a new industrial policy?
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