Stefan Gerlach's picture
Affiliation: 
EFG Bank
Credentials: 
Chief Economist

Voting history

The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options

Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?

Answer:
Other or no opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I think the proposal of Roberto Perotti, which does not seem to fit under any of your answers, is the right way to go. It will provide plenty of support and but requires no new institutional structures or changes in EU treaties.

Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?

 

 

Answer:
5-10% of GDP
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is very difficult to predict the need since there is a risk of a second wave of infections.

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Monetary policy is exceptionally expansionary in many countries, which has been appropriate given economic conditions. But they have a long way to go before interest rates have been "normalised" and there is a risk that they might fall behind the curve. That suggests to me that a little bias in favour of higher rates might be appropriate.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I believe that the relationship between the state of the labour market and inflation remains unchanged; what has changed is how best to measure the strength of the labour market. In the past when part-time work was limited, the level of unemployment worked well. These days, when many firms want to have some part-time staff and many workers prefer part-time employment, other measures, such as the number of workers that are involuntarily part-time employed or working shorter hours than they would like, might work better.

Bitcoin and the City

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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The regulatory oversight needs to be increased if and when crypto currencies become an important part of the financial system

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